20 August 2010

Analysis: second poll on Megrahi release...

Yesterday, I suggested that detailed polling data might afford some fascinating insights into the knotty ethical and political conundrum of Megrahi's release and the Scottish public's current attitudes towards it. And hey presto! Today, Ipsos MORI published their poll, undertaken on STV's penny and conducted with over the telephone  with 1,013 respondents from the 16th to the 19th of this month.

The keynotes are pretty plain, with 36% of people continuing to agree with the release, to 54% who now express disagreement with it. Interestingly, in the light of recent discussions on this blog, there seems to be a significant gender differential in opinion ("significant" here, used in its ordinary sense, denoting no added statistical calculation on my part). 42% of men expressed support, while 50% are opposed. Only 30% of female respondents were supportive, with 57% offering critical opinions.  For those who are interested, it is worth delving into the detailed computer tables. While I'd echo Jeff's sentiments that these numbers tell us relatively little about how support or opposition to the release will inform voting in the Holyrood 2011 elections, intensity of opinion might be an important indicator. Here is the breakdown, again along gendered lines:

Question: LOCKERBIE. Moving on, on Friday, it will be one year since the Scottish Justice Secretary, Kenny MacAskill, announced the release of the man convicted of the 1988 bombing of the Pan Am aeroplane over Lockerbie in which 270 people died. To what extent do you agree or disagree with the decision to release him? Do you..?

  1. Strongly agree ~ Total 20%; Men 25%;  Women 16%
  2. Tend to agree ~ Total 15%; Men 17%; Women 14%
  3. Neither agree nor disagree ~ Total 8%; Men 6%; Women 9%
  4. Tend to disagree ~ Total 9%; Men 8%; Women 10%
  5. Strongly disagree ~ Total 45%; Men 42%; Women 47% 
  6. Don't know ~ Total 3%; Men 1%; Women 4%

Evidence, one might think, that the belief that women are the merciful sex is rather misplaced. Once again, I must say I'm surprised at the gendered balance of opinion that this poll seems to capture. Age also presents another interesting picture. The youngest group of respondents seems to have particularly negative attitudes towards the release. Compare 18 - 24 year olds expressed views with the total average:

  1. Strongly agree ~ Total 20%; 18 - 24 year olds 5%
  2. Tend to agree ~ Total 15%; 18 - 24 year olds 13%
  3. Neither agree nor disagree ~ Total 8%; 18 - 24 year olds 11%
  4. Tend to disagree ~ Total 9%; 18 - 24 year olds 11%
  5. Strongly disagree ~ Total 45%; 18 - 24 year olds 58%
  6. Don't know ~ Total 3%; 18 - 24 year olds 2%

Strong agreement with the release makes a sudden leap in the next age category, from the doldrums of 5% to 19% of 25 - 34 year olds, 22% of 35 - 54 year olds and 24% of over 55s respectively. Strong disagreement pitches by over 10% from the its 58% high among the youngest group to 37%, raising again to 46% among 35 - 54 year olds, dwindling somewhat to 42 % among the eldest cohort. On the last page of the tables, support is correlated against satisfaction and dissatisfaction with the Prime Minister and First Minister respectively. I'm no master statistician, but what follows seems to be the percentage of the two politicians satisfied/dissatisfies, according to the poll. I assume there are several "can't decides" left unrecorded in the middle of both extremes of opinion, so the totals combine properly.

  1. David Cameron ~ Weighted satisfied ~ 336/1013 (33%)
  2. Alex Salmond ~ Weighted satisfied ~ 532/1013 (53%)
  3. David Cameron ~ Weighted dissatisfied ~ 482 /1013 (48%)
  4. Alex Salmond ~ Weighted dissatisfied ~ 378/1013 (37%)

There is undoubtedly much more information which could be extracted from this data if one took more time over it. Do look for yourself here. Mine is very much a baldy-man's toothcomb sweep, highlighting the points which immediately occurred to me.

8 comments :

  1. You don't have a category for hyenas. Hyenas agree with Megrahi release - and question his guilt. However rash and frankly silly statements which only ask for trouble coming from the Justice Secretary are not supported.

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  2. Not my fault, Lena! Blame the souls labouring over at Ipsos-MORI that haven't yet recognised the public identity of our fellow-hyena citizens. That said, what particular rash and silly statements from MacAskill the Goldfish Orator did you have in mind?

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  3. Dear Blameless

    Firstly, I like MacAskill but groaned when Megrahi was released to the sound of ponderous rhetoric about higher authorities...then his Mystic Meg prediction that Megrahi will soon die. It's unseemly and opens him up to more criticism. All he needs do is stand by his decision on grounds of compassion. Nothing else is required. Certainly not opening up discussion about the man's demise.

    Goldfish - as in profile or a touch of the old Order or going around and around in ever-decreasing circles or just in deep water?

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  4. "the souls labouring over at Ipsos-MORI that haven't yet recognised the public identity of our fellow-hyena citizens."
    LOL! Funny to see exactly how much respect you actually have for people who disagree with you.
    Is that possibly associated with closed-mindedness?

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  5. Lena,

    "The Goldfish Orator" because he seems to find himself caught in the eternal present when he is speaking, stringing words together as if he has forgotten those that went immediately before and has no notion of which ones are coming next.

    I can appreciate your argument. Such phrases do seem, in retrospect, to add credence to the sense that he is a hostage to fortune. Counterwise, however, I'm sure it was an appallingly difficult speech to write and whatever had happened - unless Megrahi had perished soonish - the wolfish Unionist press would hardly have abated their chase because if he hadn't included the words you criticise. That is my sense of things.

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  6. sfm,

    What a bizarre comment. The hyena remark was made - I think obviously - in reference to Lena "the Hyena's" comment about the absence of such a category in the Ipsos-Mori poll. My reference to the identity-politics of fellow hyena citizens was flippant and ironic, hardly a description of the people actually involved in this poll or their views. That much, I would have thought, is exceedingly plain.

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  7. LPW
    "The Goldfish Orator" because he seems to find himself caught in the eternal present when he is speaking, stringing words together as if he has forgotten those that went immediately before and has no notion of which ones are coming next.
    Just love this.

    As for sfm - this worried me because I couldn't understand who sfm was getting at - you or me. In the end I decided it wasn't important.

    This morning's latest that the US is demanding Megrahi's return to prison is surreal. Shallow and vindictive.

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  8. On account of the direct quotation, I assumed I was the target of that bemusing sally, Lena. As you say, another unbecoming demand from American representatives, that Christly crew who seem to entertain no dream so vividly as that of a Pharisee nation.

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